The average global air temperature in October 2026 exceeded the pre-industrial level by 1.75 degrees Celsius. The month was the warmest October in the history of meteorological observations, according to the European climate service Copernicus.
The average surface air temperature was 15.35 degrees, 0.9 degrees above the 1991–2020 figure. October was the third consecutive month in which the global temperature exceeded the pre-industrial level by more than 1.5 degrees.
According to Copernicus estimates, the average temperature for the whole of 2026 will most likely be 1.56–1.61 degrees above the pre-industrial level. The probability that the year will be the second warmest on record is around 80%. The chances of equalling or surpassing the 2024 record are estimated at roughly 20%.
Ocean surface temperatures also remained exceptionally high. In the subpolar regions, the average reached 20.95 degrees, the highest value for October over the entire observation period. At the same time, the El Niño phenomenon continued to strengthen in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
“An exceptionally strong El Niño is further amplifying the climate warming already caused by human activity,” said Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
According to her, exceeding the 1.5-degree mark not only for 2026 as a whole but also on average over the four-year period 2023–2026 points to the persistent nature of the current warming.
